Ultimate Strength of Schedule - Defs
|
Posted 8/14 by Clayton Gray, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Quick link to: QB · RB · WR · TE · PK · D/ST · DB · DL · LB
The advantages offered by the Ultimate
Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous
and include (but are not limited to) the following:
- Fantasy points driven
Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on
fantasy points.
- Removed bias of schedule
Consider the following defenses: Defense A faced the top 16 offenses while
Defense B faced the worst 16 offenses. If
both defenses allowed opposing QBs to average 300 fantasy points last season,
are they equally strong? Of course
not; Defense A is far superior as they faced much better offenses.
This bias of schedule has been removed from USOS.
- Positional breakdown
If you are looking for a RB, it’s much more relevant to see SOS data for
RBs (rather than simply rushing data).
- Comparison of 2006 schedule to 2005 schedule
On the surface, a team with an easy schedule at
RB should see better RB stats this year. Good schedule = bigger numbers
than the year before, right? It seems logical. However, sometimes it's
not enough to say that a team has an easy schedule. What if they had an
equally easy schedule the season before? Equal schedule = similar numbers
as the year before. USOS looks
at the differences in schedule from this year compared to last season.
An easier set of opponents this year points to increased production. A more difficult set of opponents this
season points to decreased production.
Explanation of USOS Tables
Below, you will see tables for each positions
USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of
these tables.
The “Tm”
Column
This is simply the NFL team.
The Values
Each value in the table is the expected number
of fantasy points on a per game basis.
The Coloring
of the Values
The red values indicate that the team has one of the
eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. Red was chosen because the team could heat up
statistically. The blue values indicate that the team
has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column. Blue was chosen because the team could cool down
statistically.
- Red
is a hot
team with a good schedule
- Blue
is a cold
team with a bad schedule
The “2006”
Column
This is the average expected fantasy points allowed
by each team’s opponents for this season.
The “%ch”
Column
This is the percentage of change between the 2006
SOS and the 2005 SOS. A positive value
points to an easier SOS than last year while a negative value points to a more
difficult SOS compared to last season.
The “Easy”
Column
This is the number of easy opponents each team
will face this season. An easy opponent
is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with
as many easy games as possible.
The “Tough”
Column
This is the number of tough opponents each team
will face this season. A tough opponent
is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with
as few tough games as possible.
The “First5”
Column
This is the SOS for the first five weeks of the
NFL season (note that some teams only play four games in this time frame). This value is useful to determine how players
should be expected to open the season. Players with low values could easily
stumble out of the gate.
The “Lst5”
Column
This is similar to the “First5” column except
that it is the SOS for the final five
weeks of the NFL season. This value is
useful to determine how players should be expected to end the season. This is a critical stretch of games as your
fantasy playoffs take place here. Players with high values here are likely to
perform very well during your fantasy playoffs.
The “W1”
through “W17” Columns
These values are the expected strength of each
team’s opponent for that particular week (W5 is Week 5, etc). This is very useful when searching for backups
for your stud players. The key is to locate players with easy opponents when
your star is on a bye.
Ultimate Strength
of Schedule - Defense / Special Teams
Team |
06sos
|
%ch
|
Easy
|
Tough
|
1st5
|
Lst5
|
Ari |
7.3
|
3.4%
|
4
|
4
|
6.7
|
6.3
|
Atl |
7.2
|
-2.6%
|
2
|
4
|
6.9
|
6.5
|
Bal |
7.7
|
18.9%
|
4
|
4
|
8.5
|
8.2
|
Buf |
6.6
|
-0.4%
|
5
|
6
|
5.5
|
7.5
|
Car |
7.5
|
-4.6%
|
2
|
3
|
8.7
|
7.0
|
Chi |
7.4
|
-1.1%
|
5
|
5
|
8.2
|
8.1
|
Cin |
7.6
|
8.2%
|
5
|
4
|
6.7
|
7.3
|
Cle |
7.2
|
7.8%
|
5
|
4
|
8.1
|
7.4
|
Dal |
7.0
|
0.2%
|
1
|
4
|
7.7
|
7.3
|
Den |
7.1
|
4.6%
|
5
|
4
|
6.0
|
5.7
|
Det |
7.3
|
-4.2%
|
5
|
3
|
6.8
|
6.0
|
GB |
7.1
|
0.7%
|
3
|
3
|
7.6
|
8.5
|
Hou |
7.2
|
12.4%
|
4
|
5
|
5.6
|
7.4
|
Ind |
6.9
|
-3.2%
|
5
|
5
|
8.0
|
6.3
|
Jac |
6.5
|
-6.1%
|
4
|
5
|
7.0
|
3.9
|
KC |
7.5
|
13.4%
|
5
|
5
|
6.2
|
10.3
|
Mia |
7.4
|
7.7%
|
6
|
3
|
7.3
|
6.8
|
Min |
7.4
|
1.7%
|
5
|
3
|
8.1
|
8.7
|
NE |
7.5
|
14.0%
|
6
|
5
|
6.6
|
7.5
|
NO |
7.4
|
6.1%
|
4
|
3
|
8.7
|
7.2
|
NYG |
6.6
|
-13.0%
|
1
|
3
|
5.0
|
7.4
|
NYJ |
7.5
|
15.4%
|
6
|
5
|
6.1
|
9.5
|
Oak |
7.1
|
10.4%
|
5
|
4
|
10.3
|
7.4
|
Phi |
7.3
|
3.9%
|
4
|
3
|
8.4
|
6.6
|
Pit |
7.6
|
10.1%
|
5
|
5
|
5.3
|
7.4
|
SD |
7.8
|
25.1%
|
5
|
4
|
9.1
|
6.1
|
SF |
7.0
|
-2.7%
|
2
|
4
|
8.1
|
6.7
|
Sea |
7.7
|
-2.7%
|
4
|
4
|
6.3
|
6.7
|
StL |
7.2
|
-4.6%
|
4
|
3
|
8.4
|
8.4
|
TB |
7.0
|
-6.9%
|
2
|
3
|
8.2
|
7.0
|
Ten |
7.0
|
3.8%
|
5
|
5
|
5.9
|
6.7
|
Was |
6.6
|
-8.0%
|
1
|
4
|
7.2
|
7.3
|
Week-By-Week
Team |
W1
|
W2
|
W3
|
W4
|
W5
|
W6
|
W7
|
W8
|
W9
|
W10
|
W11
|
W12
|
W13
|
W14
|
W15
|
W16
|
W17
|
Ari |
10.7
|
1.4
|
8.6
|
7.6
|
5.3
|
5.0
|
12.8
|
11.2
|
-
|
5.8
|
8.4
|
7.7
|
8.6
|
1.4
|
4.1
|
10.7
|
6.8
|
Atl |
6.0
|
4.8
|
9.5
|
7.4
|
-
|
4.4
|
6.9
|
2.5
|
8.4
|
14.1
|
9.7
|
9.5
|
9.2
|
4.8
|
5.8
|
6.0
|
6.6
|
Bal |
4.8
|
12.8
|
14.1
|
6.8
|
4.1
|
6.0
|
-
|
9.5
|
2.5
|
7.0
|
7.6
|
6.9
|
2.5
|
5.3
|
14.1
|
6.9
|
12.1
|
Buf |
0.4
|
3.7
|
10.4
|
7.7
|
5.0
|
8.4
|
0.4
|
-
|
11.2
|
2.9
|
10.1
|
8.2
|
6.8
|
10.4
|
3.7
|
7.0
|
9.7
|
Car |
7.6
|
7.7
|
4.8
|
9.5
|
14.1
|
9.7
|
2.5
|
5.8
|
-
|
4.8
|
8.6
|
9.2
|
6.6
|
4.4
|
6.9
|
7.6
|
9.5
|
Chi |
11.2
|
8.4
|
7.7
|
1.4
|
12.1
|
7.4
|
-
|
10.7
|
3.7
|
4.4
|
10.4
|
0.4
|
7.7
|
8.6
|
4.8
|
8.4
|
11.2
|
Cin |
5.3
|
14.1
|
6.9
|
0.4
|
-
|
4.8
|
6.0
|
7.6
|
9.7
|
6.8
|
9.5
|
14.1
|
9.7
|
12.8
|
2.9
|
4.1
|
6.9
|
Cle |
9.5
|
2.5
|
9.7
|
12.8
|
6.0
|
-
|
4.1
|
10.4
|
6.8
|
7.6
|
6.9
|
2.5
|
5.3
|
6.9
|
9.7
|
4.8
|
10.1
|
Dal |
8.2
|
9.2
|
-
|
7.0
|
6.6
|
10.1
|
4.4
|
6.0
|
9.2
|
7.4
|
2.9
|
4.8
|
4.4
|
9.5
|
7.6
|
6.6
|
8.4
|
Den |
8.6
|
5.3
|
0.4
|
-
|
9.7
|
12.8
|
14.1
|
2.9
|
6.9
|
12.8
|
6.8
|
5.3
|
1.4
|
6.8
|
7.4
|
2.5
|
10.7
|
Det |
1.4
|
5.0
|
11.2
|
8.6
|
7.7
|
12.1
|
10.4
|
-
|
7.6
|
10.7
|
7.4
|
3.7
|
0.4
|
7.7
|
11.2
|
5.0
|
5.8
|
GB |
5.0
|
9.5
|
8.4
|
6.6
|
8.6
|
-
|
3.7
|
7.4
|
12.1
|
7.7
|
0.4
|
1.4
|
10.4
|
10.7
|
8.4
|
7.7
|
5.0
|
Hou |
6.6
|
2.9
|
9.2
|
3.7
|
-
|
5.8
|
8.2
|
7.0
|
4.4
|
8.2
|
12.1
|
10.4
|
12.8
|
7.0
|
0.4
|
2.9
|
14.1
|
Ind |
4.4
|
10.1
|
8.2
|
10.4
|
7.0
|
-
|
9.2
|
4.1
|
0.4
|
12.1
|
5.8
|
6.6
|
7.0
|
8.2
|
2.5
|
10.1
|
3.7
|
Jac |
5.8
|
6.9
|
2.9
|
9.2
|
10.4
|
-
|
10.1
|
6.6
|
7.0
|
10.1
|
4.4
|
12.1
|
3.7
|
2.9
|
7.0
|
0.4
|
5.3
|
KC |
2.5
|
4.1
|
-
|
10.7
|
7.4
|
6.9
|
6.8
|
1.4
|
8.6
|
3.7
|
12.8
|
4.1
|
14.1
|
9.7
|
6.8
|
12.8
|
8.2
|
Mia |
6.9
|
12.1
|
7.0
|
10.1
|
0.4
|
10.4
|
11.2
|
-
|
5.0
|
5.3
|
7.7
|
8.4
|
8.2
|
0.4
|
12.1
|
10.4
|
2.9
|
Min |
9.2
|
6.0
|
5.0
|
12.1
|
8.4
|
-
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
10.7
|
11.2
|
3.7
|
7.4
|
5.0
|
8.4
|
10.4
|
11.2
|
8.6
|
NE |
12.1
|
10.4
|
4.1
|
2.5
|
3.7
|
-
|
12.1
|
7.7
|
2.9
|
10.4
|
11.2
|
5.0
|
8.4
|
3.7
|
10.1
|
8.2
|
7.0
|
NO |
14.1
|
11.2
|
7.6
|
6.0
|
4.8
|
6.6
|
-
|
9.7
|
4.8
|
6.9
|
2.5
|
7.6
|
10.7
|
5.8
|
9.2
|
4.4
|
6.0
|
NYG |
2.9
|
6.6
|
1.4
|
-
|
9.2
|
7.6
|
5.8
|
4.8
|
10.1
|
5.0
|
8.2
|
7.0
|
5.8
|
6.0
|
6.6
|
9.5
|
9.2
|
NYJ |
7.0
|
0.4
|
12.1
|
2.9
|
8.2
|
3.7
|
8.4
|
14.1
|
-
|
0.4
|
5.0
|
10.1
|
11.2
|
12.1
|
7.7
|
3.7
|
12.8
|
Oak |
6.8
|
9.7
|
-
|
14.1
|
10.7
|
4.1
|
7.4
|
6.9
|
1.4
|
4.1
|
5.3
|
6.8
|
10.1
|
2.5
|
8.6
|
5.3
|
10.4
|
Phi |
10.1
|
4.4
|
10.7
|
11.2
|
5.8
|
9.5
|
4.8
|
8.2
|
-
|
9.2
|
7.0
|
2.9
|
6.0
|
9.2
|
4.4
|
5.8
|
7.6
|
Pit |
3.7
|
8.2
|
2.5
|
-
|
6.8
|
5.3
|
7.6
|
12.8
|
4.1
|
9.5
|
14.1
|
9.7
|
4.8
|
14.1
|
6.0
|
9.7
|
2.5
|
SD |
12.8
|
7.0
|
-
|
9.7
|
6.9
|
10.7
|
5.3
|
8.6
|
14.1
|
2.5
|
4.1
|
12.8
|
12.1
|
4.1
|
5.3
|
1.4
|
7.4
|
SF |
7.4
|
8.6
|
6.6
|
5.3
|
12.8
|
6.8
|
-
|
5.0
|
7.7
|
8.4
|
1.4
|
8.6
|
9.5
|
11.2
|
1.4
|
7.4
|
4.1
|
Sea |
8.4
|
7.4
|
4.4
|
5.0
|
-
|
8.6
|
7.7
|
5.3
|
12.8
|
8.6
|
10.7
|
11.2
|
4.1
|
7.4
|
10.7
|
6.8
|
4.8
|
StL |
4.1
|
10.7
|
7.4
|
8.4
|
11.2
|
1.4
|
-
|
6.8
|
5.3
|
1.4
|
6.0
|
10.7
|
7.4
|
5.0
|
12.8
|
9.2
|
7.7
|
TB |
9.7
|
7.6
|
6.0
|
-
|
9.5
|
2.5
|
6.6
|
4.4
|
9.5
|
6.0
|
9.2
|
5.8
|
6.9
|
7.6
|
5.0
|
14.1
|
1.4
|
Ten |
10.4
|
6.8
|
3.7
|
5.8
|
2.9
|
9.2
|
-
|
10.1
|
8.2
|
9.7
|
6.6
|
4.4
|
2.9
|
10.1
|
8.2
|
12.1
|
0.4
|
Was |
7.7
|
5.8
|
10.1
|
8.2
|
4.4
|
7.0
|
2.9
|
-
|
5.8
|
6.6
|
4.8
|
6.0
|
7.6
|
6.6
|
9.5
|
8.6
|
4.4
|
|